Rays of Hope for Coronavirus

hi everyone this is charles hoskinson broadcasting live from warm city colorado just about to go to bed finally got a little bit of a shave tomorrow i hopefully will get the hair taken care of i just wanted to make a quick video because i encountered a really interesting set of statistics and stories and we're all locked down and the whole world is in a bad state and every now and then when you see a some rays of hope it's good to share them so let me share my screen real quick here let's see here share screens okay so this is an article from bloomberg and it's updated very frequently in fact it was just updated january 18th and basically they're tracking all the global distribution of vaccines and so for about 44 million vaccines in a given vast majority of which are moderna and pfizer and this is going to shoot up pretty rapidly so this is a picture of the entire united states and the darker the green gets the more vaccinations have occurred per a hundred people so right now the leader is west virginia and they're sitting at almost eight percent you can see them right there and then there's some stragglers like nevada and so forth that really don't have their act together and what's cool is you can see a breakdown of all the different vaccines distributed to states so how many been administered and percentage of shots used and so forth and then this is a world map of who's right now leading in the vaccination rate now one of the most interesting things is the country of israel you'll notice that israel is almost at 30 percent for vaccination and more precisely about 27 percent of its population has been vaccinated so netanyahu is up for re-election it seems and i think it's going to occur in march and he wants to vaccinate more than half of the entire country before march is over so if this occurs then there's a very good possibility that israel will start exhibiting herd immunity as early as march and israel has four government hmos they have universal health care and one of the advantages is that they have a unified emr system electronic medical records system so they're sharing medical data pretty much for the whole country with pfizer and these other companies so what that effectively means is that israel is in a very unique position to basically be the guinea pig for the entire world you see america is only sitting at about three percent of its population is vaccinated at the moment and that's mostly true for all of the developed countries so basically by march to april we should have some really good data points on two things one israel's biasing its vaccinations towards those over the age of 55. so there's a very good possibility that if they continue the trend that they're at about 80 percent of the population could be vaccinated at that age group so both the lethality and the rate of infection we'll be able to actually see definitively by april to may from the israeli data and that'll be available to all of the companies and that'll basically give us a good sense of a snapshot of what the world could look like by the end of 2021 and also it's very likely that if they continue this rate of vaccination and they see as i predict a huge decline in the death rate and a huge decline in the infection rate first through those observational studies they'll give us a good indication where these vaccines provide sufficient what's called sterilizing immunity so vaccine can prevent the onset of disease or it can also prevent the infection itself it's not necessarily guaranteed that'll prevent the infection so israel will basically give us because there's nine million people there it's very diverse population that's a statistically significant sample probably by april to may really good indications of whether these vaccines provide sterilizing immunity or not and also the rate of spread once you have some notion of her immunity so with those data points if they look positive then almost certainly it means that the pandemic will be broken sometime this year and completely looking in that we no longer need mask wearing we no longer need social distancing it'll just kind of work its way out but it's a pretty cool website i've bookmarked it the bloomberg global vaccine tracker it has the most up-to-date data another cool part of the website is if you go down it shows you all the different vaccine platforms and where they're at with approval so you can see pfizer and moderna are the two first out of the gate and astrozenica is also out of the gate it looks they're going to most likely approve astrazeneca and johnson johnson in the united states in february and the european union looks it's going to get approved broad scale around january 29th novavax yeah more likely than not late may to june i would estimate that the approval is going to come these five platforms are enough to vaccinate all of america all of europe by the end of 2021.