Happy Thanksgiving and Some Thoughts

hi everyone this is charles hoskinson broadcasting live from warm sunny north carolina out on the lake just out here visiting some friends and family for thanksgiving and rented a little lake house out damn middle of nowhere south of charlotte and it's just so beautiful out here you have perfect sunny 70 degree weather you have beautiful trees outside wrote a pontoon boat all around catfish running around it's just a beautiful place to spend thanksgiving i love north carolina many of that one of my first companies in the space was invictus innovations and i was based in for a little while blacks for blacksburg virginia which is just a little north of the border with north carolina so every now and then i'd go a little bit south but it is certainly nice to be in this part of the state and i wanted to wish everybody a happy thanksgiving i hope everyone's having a lot of fun it's a funny thing i run a company in 40 countries 39 don't celebrate thanksgiving one does i guess canada does too but it's a different month than we americans so a lot of people were working today and they were perplexed why i took the day off and i said i assure you it's actually a pretty big holiday for us that said a lot of people have had a hard thanksgiving in fact i just found out that some people i know have been arrested for having a thanksgiving celebration that was too large and that's a theme around the entire united states and it got me thinking and it's something that i i did want to talk a little bit about i've been talking a lot about the vaccines that are coming out and a lot of people ask why are you so obsessed with these vaccines and to me it's basically the political object required to restart the world and it's in everyone's best interest wherever they sit for this to end the politicians made some decisions and the decisions that they made over the last year have been pretty devastating to many people and they can't undo those decisions they can't walk them back nor can the media so the symbol to end this epidemic this pandemic whether coronavirus actually goes away or not is mass vaccination so whether you agree with that or not it is basically the thing that's going to get us out of this and get the world back to a notion of normal now there are some policy questions though that are coming up because the goal posts keep getting moved time and again time and again time and again so these lockdowns these arrests these ticketings which are just blatantly anti-american and against any semblance of constitutionality they say well it's for the good of society and we have to keep doing this because it's for the good of society we have to protect the vulnerable so it looks the united states is going to approve the pfizer vaccine december 10th and begin shipments of the pfizer vaccine to all 64 territories so 50 states plus 14 territories december 11th to december 12 this year tens of millions of doses are already available the moderna vaccine is likely going to ship somewhere around december 18th to december 24th the day before christmas the combined rate of production and shipping that's been prepared in the united states will mean that somewhere between 10 to 15 million people per month can be vaccinated with a strong bias towards the vulnerable at-risk groups and critical workers now here's the interesting policy question that comes up the whole point of shutting the world down was because the vulnerable people are at a high degree of risk some cases greater than five percent if infected with this disease well once those vaccines ship and those vulnerable populations are inoculated all the data they indicate that this is no longer a statistical concern for them so as we vaccinate 10 to 15 million people per month at what point have we vaccinated enough of the vulnerable people to say even though some people are going to die normal behavior will resume for large groups of people in the world covet while it can't be problematic it's not really any more problematic than influenza for certain groups of people it's significantly more so if those groups of people have been vaccinated then at what point what stage do we say okay we've reached that threshold time to take the masks off time to end the lockdowns no more social distancing the world is back to normal it's a really interesting question what i have heard over the last few months in particular now that the vaccines have shown to be safe and effective especially the mrna vaccines is that we have to wait for the whole world to get vaccinated the whole world this has never happened for any disease in human history and there have been mass vaccination attempts for polio for smallpox for all kinds of ailments and it has taken decades if not centuries for us to get to a point where there was reasonable coverage of the world it is insane to have a standard that the entire world be vaccinated for us to get back to work and it's something that i think everybody needs to start thinking about voting about moving into 2021. the politicians got their way the world was shut down those decisions are going to be reviewed for many years to come and a lot of questions are going to be asked and this will not be forgotten we tend to have short-term memories but the harm that was done to society the suicides the domestic violence the broken up marriages the trauma to children losing an entire school year of their lives the lies and the lack of faith in institutions the shutbacks all these things the starvation that's going to occur as a consequence of shutting the global economy down contrasted with a grand miracle of science where for the first time in human history we we were able to develop multiple vaccines in under one year usually it takes four years five years when we're working really fast to be able to do that in one year has never been done before so now the clock is ticking as of december 12th and every month that clicks some meaningful percentage of the us population will be vaccinated it there will never be a case that a hundred percent will be vaccinated just not going to happen so what is the percentage that needs to be vaccinated before we all get back to work and this madness ends now in the coming months you're going to see a lot of surges in the united states for coronavirus and that that surge is going to be due to thanksgiving and due to christmas and the holiday season people are traveling in mass people are aggregating and closed doors and people are spending more time indoors because it's cold and we'll see a humongous surge of cases and i would not be surprised if we double the amount of coronavirus cases on the books in the next three to six months and we see four or five hundred thousand people total die before the vaccination effect kicks in but then after that the mortality rate is going to plummet massively it already has it's gone down 85 percent because we simply have better treatments so this is going to be the challenge of 2021 and there's going to be a lot of conversation about it our industry is going to be brought in at some point already half of my country feels that the u.