Models, Game Theory, and Policy

hi this is charles hoskinson broadcasting live from warm sunny colorado it's now time to talk about one of my favorite topics all the things that cause our freedom of movement and society to break down the lovely corona if you don't want another corona video opt out because that's what you're in for i wanted to talk a little bit about data and models and game theory so one of the things we are experts in in the cryptocurrency space is getting people to do things we get people do things through incentives don't believe me bitcoin's amazing journey went from a single miner middle of nowhere to people in mongolia setting up mining factories in the country of georgia setting up mining operations that's good incentives engineering and so let me share my screen we finally have a goal post and we have this lovely article from the associated pet post it says biden aims to vaccinate 70 of the american population by july 4th okay well that's a goal post and why does he want to do that well if you look at the cdc data and this is the cdc tracking what are called breakthrough cases so these are cases of covet after someone has been vaccinated so full vaccination both shots two weeks later if you get sick the cdc is very interested in that so what do we have right here we have this table and it says if you read it 95 million people in the united states have been fully vaccinated against covet 19. during the same time the cdc received reports of vaccine breakthrough infections from 46 states and territories the total number of breakthrough infections reported to the cdc are only 9245 cases out of 95 million people who have been fully vaccinated in the united states now of that asymptomatic infections were about 27 hospitalizations were about 835 and 132 deaths if you really think about that 132 deaths out of 95 million people probably the vast majority of those people had a lot of comorbidities and were already very sick and asymptomatic infections didn't really do much for them and hospitalization 835 out of 95 million so that's statistically insignificant you're looking at post-vaccination rate of infection of zero zero one percent if these were the numbers we were looking at when we entered into this pandemic no one would care about the pandemic no one would talk about the pandemic and now let's look at the israeli data this lovely article from bloomberg you have 57.9 of the population has been fully vaccinated meaning they've received two shots and if you look at this chart right here with israel you'll notice that from january 13th the seven day rolling average to may 5th right there at may 5th again as close as i can to it they have eight cases compared to january 1000 cases per million people okay so basically despite the fact that they're under 70 percent they're at 57.9 percent corona has really stopped transmitting and there's a lot of great articles there's something here if we look at the risk of sars cov2 transmission this is a report from the european union that they commissioned specifically on the topic an ecdc technical report and the longer the short is and it's a long report lots of disclaimers because scientists are bureaucrats and they always always always put disclaimers no one ever wants to say something definitively but they do actually have some definitive statements in the particular report if we scroll down the summary discussion of evidence the available evidence of covet 19 vaccine effectiveness against transmission of stars cov2 is still limited however results from ongoing trials and observational studies of vaccine effectiveness against symptomatic and asymptomatic infection viral load duration of viral shedding are suggestive of a relevant effect including against transmission and then they throw a bunch of things saying well we don't know more study is required because we know we don't really want to take a position however there's a great article here that's in science some phenomenal authors wonderful affiliations and basically long and short as you take a look at cd8 plus t lymphocytes and cd4 t lymphocytes they say hey ninety percent of the subjects are still having a great immune response five months after infection and this of course applies also for vaccination there's ample data for this and you can go through paper after paper after paper the rule of thumb here is you're vaccinated there's a significantly lower chance you're going to get infected asymptomatic or otherwise and because your body has such a strong immune response your viral load is likely to be extremely low and if it's extremely low your chance as a vaccinated person of spreading this disease to somebody is very low and we know that because we could see it in the data in israel and everywhere else you take a look at these curves now is it zero no and this brings me to the point of the video which is game theory you have a goal you say i want 70 of america to do something so you have two decisions to make you can either give them nothing to accommodate your goal and say of your own good and free will being a great citizen go and do it but you give them nothing if that works why do we have mass mandates if you believe americans are just going to go and do this and do the right thing why do you mandate that people wear a mask because you don't trust them to go and do the right thing you don't trust them to do what you say to do and so you through the power of law have to compel them to go and do that okay the other category which is you have to either use a stick or a carrot now the stick is to say by law you have to go get vaccinated or you lose freedoms if you don't get vaccinated or you lose your job if you don't get vaccinated the carrot is you get something for getting vaccinated money or additional freedoms and so forth every place we measure it we look at it it's very clear that the vaccinated people are not problematic your chance of contracting corona from a vaccinated person is considerably lower than your chance of contracting corona from an unvaccinated person we can say this with certainty and any scientist or doctor that says otherwise is either an idiot or they're lying to you just straight out they just they're just there's no truth to that and it's it's a fact because it just makes common sense and we see it looking at the data of an entire country in this case israel observational studies nasal pharyngeal swabs measuring viral load both when the clinical trial astrozenica was going on and later on through things were done in retirement homes and nursing homes in denmark and other places by the european union and every place we look if your immune system recognizes something there's a much higher probability it's going to eliminate that thing before it gets a foothold and thus you'll have a low viral load low shedding and therefore a low chance of asymptomatic spread or symptomatic spread that's a fact we know that so you want this you want 70 of america to do something so the natural question to ask is why not just tell america if you get vaccinated it's over for you now there's a chance that yes you're going to run into one of these 10 000 people that have been reported symptomatic or asymptomatic and yes they'll spread it but nine times out of ten actually much better odds than that there's just no problem at all and they're not going to spread it to you so what you're doing is trading a high risk group for a significantly lower risk group and by increasing the caret incentive of life goes back to normal you can do normal things again there will be an overwhelming demand of people that want to get back to normal because they have coveted fatigue if you instead say to people get vaccinated but nothing changes for you still have to wear a mask you still have to social distance then really what you're basically going to have is what's occurring now in israel the place where they didn't do that look at israel they're at 57 percent where 56 were given two doses 59.8 were given at least one dose the average is 57 percent only 8 478 doses administered today when they first started doing this over a hundred thousand doses were being administered a day look at the united states vaccination numbers we're at 2.

1 million we used to be over 3 million doses and in fact i believe there's a chart here you can take a look let's see here we can select a location there was a chart people covered maybe we can just go to the united states up here united arab emirates here we go let's go to the united states okay and you can see this nice curve and tons of shots being given every day the average is about three million but you notice it's flattening it's flattening for two reasons one vaccine hesitancy and two there's absolutely no desire or incentive for people to get it one of the great lies that was told about this pandemic is that every single person's chance of death or a bad outcome with covet is equal if you're 90 years old apparently it's equal to if you're 30 years old it's a lie and people know it and so all of the people who are 90 and 80 there's an overwhelming supply of them who are vaccinated why do i know that because 40 of the us population is vaccinated and only recently could i get a vaccine which means that the only people who could get a vaccine were the elderly and the risk groups and i'm willing to wager if we look at it about 70 percent to 80 percent of those populations are vaccinated which means that the people who are now unvaccinated are the very young and the non-risk groups in the middle aged okay that's where we're at and those numbers aren't going to move every single curve is capping out except for anomalies like seychelles where there's like 10 000 people in the island everybody knows each other pretty easy to do that same for bhutan and all these other places you look at the united states it's a very diverse place there's a high degree of vaccine hesitancy especially along political lines because a variety of reasons and you're not going to get a much higher than 50 or 60 percent unless you give people an incentive that's what we do as an industry this is what we think about every single day what incentivizes an honest majority what incentivizes a person to do x over y what adversary has the ability to tack things and it's all in public health about decisions you make do you want a perfectly accurate test that's 99 accurate and it costs a hundred dollars and it has to be administered by a doctor or do you want to test that 70 percent accurate and it costs 5 cents and it can be administered at home a keto piece strip or something like that which one would you rather have from a public health perspective it's probably much better to get the cheaper less accurate test because you can give it to everybody every week and you'll catch seven out of ten cases with it and that gets you a significant further along in managing the pandemic than the expensive tests that only the doctor can do you see and this is the difference between medicine and public health public health thinks about the entire group and makes decisions not about perfection but the average if i know with certainty that my chance is considerably lower of contracting covert from a vaccinated person i will 10 times out of 10 times trade out an unvaccinated person for a vaccinated person even if it means i have to elevate my risk from the vaccinated group slightly higher maybe another one percent chance but i'm massively reducing my chance of getting infected from a fac unvaccinated person because those unvaccinated people are rapidly changing out to vaccinated it's just that simple and you say but charles what about the variance what about all these other things well the variants exist here guys exist in the united states they exist in israel they exist everywhere okay and when you look at observational studies all things considered variants included it looks we're doing a pretty good job of managing it and the vaccines are not having very many breakthroughs if the variances were a strain materialized that was problematic you would not see just 9245 cases when you vaccinated 95 million people and if you have resistance to a slightly related strain or variant it's very likely you'll have some degree of natural immunity and resistance to the mutation why because human beings have had to deal with this throughout all of our entire lives as a species and if our immune system was so fragile that a simple mutation in something completely eradicates all of our immunity and resets the entire clock we would have been already eradicated as a species we couldn't have survived and we have never recovered from any of the pandemics of the past okay so a vaccine in the current setting is sufficient and all the data and evidence we're seeing is great for that now it's not to say at some point mutations will get to a point where it's not and that's why madarano and pfizer and others are creating booster shots and there's a plan to link them into the flu regimen but if this is the goal post i'm going to tell you right now but a million dollars it will not be reached unless you give something to somebody or you use the heavy hand of government to punish people if they don't do it and that's a policy decision that has to be made this is the point of public health and it's something that people are missing and it just blows my mind throughout this entire pandemic because everybody is an expert in immunology everybody's an expert in vaccinology everybody's a doctor everybody's a public health professional not too long ago i posted a video and the video contained a scientist she's a phd in england who presided a meta-analysis of 13 studies for the use of a particular drug that shall not be named because apparently you get taken down or labeled as false news for and the 13 studies showed that this drug was efficacious against copen relatively high degree of efficacy for the reduction of mortality contrasting that study to the one the who that said the other thing the whole study was not peer-reviewed and highly flawed and they went into detail exhaustive detail over a five-minute period in the video about why there were flaws in that study meta-analyses are specifically for public health things you take the preponderance of all the evidence that you have available some good and some bad and some ugly you put it all together and you make a decision and everybody's different genetically different metabolisms are different circumstances are different even if you have same genome the epigenome is different so okay maybe it works for bob but it doesn't work for jane at least you have something there and if it's relatively safe why not try it for example vitamin d i and what's just blown my mind throughout this whole thing is just how ready people are to defend incredibly bad or short-sighted policy and guys there are consequences to this it's devastating we're a global company we operate not just the united states but we also operate in africa and when it's an inconvenience for me in colorado wyoming it's life or death for somebody in india or in ethiopia or in rwanda or uganda and other places i live in a country where i can't get a clear answer why nova vaxx has not been approved just don't understand it the data is there it's very clear it's safe and efficacious we're all just waiting for bureaucracy we're in a pandemic our lives have to be put on hold the only thing that matters in society not our faith not our freedom of movement not our economic freedoms and liberties is the prevention of a disease that we're told is the worst thing ever has happened in america worse than world war ii worse than anything else it's the worst thing that's ever happened and yet one of the cures to this disease a vaccine as effective as pfizer and moderna is being kept off the market artificially while we wait for bureaucracy to come through for the u.s clinical trials to confirm what the uk clinical trials which were conducted with the same standards and the relative same amount of people already know i can't be told why that's the case i just don't understand it okay well the stockpiles of novavax then could we at least go call up india where hundreds of thousands of people every day are contracting the disease and thousands if not tens of thousands are dying every day and give them that vaccine that either back more than happy to receive it no can't do it okay we took johnson and johnson off the market because there was a one in a million risk of blood clots put it back on the market what our great lords of policy did they stuck a little label on the side of it saying warning may cause blood clots for certain cases okay and all that did was just massively increase vaccine hesitancy create confirmation bias for those who don't already like these platforms and now create a situation where no one wants that particular vaccine even though its chance of blood clots is one in a million you give everybody in america 300 people get it that's an effective thing given that half a million americans have already died well why not just take the thing off the market ship johnson johnson to india then and ask the government are they okay with 1200 blood clots happening to vaccinate their entire population no we can't do that that's where we're at we're not making public health and policy decisions properly and we're sitting on realistic goal posts and there's no understanding of incentives and there's no intellectual honesty in any of these debates i'm being told now by the national park service there are certain cases in a national park that i have to wear a mask fully vaccinated outdoors in a forest there's no science at all behind any of these conversations this is madness it's absolute madness the longer this happens the more economic damage it does to the developing world the more economic damage it does to them the this is the difference between someone having food on their plate and not again go to the new york times and google covet starvation new york times the very first article that comes up over 200 million people as a direct consequence of the economic shutdown will be pushed the next 12 24 months into acute hunger millions of those people mostly children and elderly people will starve to death it's not a game this is not a person wanting to go to applebee's and go get their little mai tai or go to their favorite bar and party with their friends this is reality when you do these things millions of people will over a period of time die in one of the most horrible ways possible they will starve to death no food on their plate this is not because farmers are contracting covet and they're unable to produce food this is because there are consequences to shutting the global economy down and when you do that it's devastating and before you say but look at how bad things are in india that's a public health failure it was a failure for proper quarantine it was a failure for proper contact tracing it was a failure despite the fact that they're one of the largest medicine and vaccine manufacturers in the world to be able to field and manufacture these things even though they had 12 months head start it's a failure of global policy it's a failure of the who it's a failure of the way we buy vaccines in the world for example why wasn't it mandated by the league of nations all the nations around the developed nations when they buy a vaccine there's a buy one get one free and a vaccine is donated one to one to the developing world why not why are we profiting from this why does pfizer get to charge 35 dollars a dose why does madeira know what i paid the tax payers in the united states paid for this drug by definition an orphan drug why do they make 30 bucks a dose for these things why haven't we nationalized these vaccines open source these vaccines and made them available to all why after 14 months of dealing with this we haven't fixed the supply chains at all it's a lack of global leadership it's not covet that's causing this it's incompetent leadership and a lack of understanding of incentives and honesty and i'm just damn tired of it i'm so damn tired of it and i'm so tired of people who have spent exactly zero effort trying to actually understand what's going on and seeing how these things are happening just babbling over twitter reddit telegram as if they're the world's greatest experts and then attacking anybody who disagrees with them saying you're not a doctor gentlemen and ladies doctors have been silenced i have talked to so many doctors about this and we ask them when will the pandemic end and the response is the same i don't know i'm not a politician this is not a medical problem anymore it's really not if you think it is you tell me why this is an issue i can live with that you can live with that and we already know how to make vaccines relatively rapidly and we have a pretty good genomic surveillance worldwide system that's getting us enough data that we can keep a pretty good eye on the variance and i have absolute confidence that we will every six to twelve months be able to deliver booster shots that will maintain this and we can roll it into the regular flu shot regimen and what paper after paper after paper are showing us that this immunity is relatively durable this is normal life and now that we're here the question is how do we get here for everybody and if that's what biden wants to do what you do is you say if you get there life goes back to normal for you but they won't do that because this has nothing at all to do with solving a public health crisis this is encroachment of government control over every aspect of our lives 9 11 happens in the united states horrible event and now airport security has forever changed for 20 years it's been terrible and we're always told it's going to get better if you spend 80 bucks and get tsa pre it's a little better for you it's still quite invasive we built this gargantuan spy state and invested tens of billions of dollars every year into collecting everybody in the whole world's information to prevent the war on terrorism by the way it's never won 20 years later we're still fighting it there's still troops in 100 countries there's still intelligence agencies collecting information about everybody nothing changes do you think for a moment that all of these emergency things that have been put into place are going to just disappear overnight because we hit this target and by the way we're not going to hit it it's not going to happen because there's no incentive for it to happen and if it was going to happen why didn't happen in israel where there's very strong government pushing and it's a small homogeneous population it's a crazy target so my concern is that this is not going to go away and it's here forever i've waited very patiently for the vaccines i took the vaccine i've taken both doses of the pfizer vaccine i i have been exposed to people who have coronavirus i've never in my life tested positive on a test i take my vitamin d i take my zinc i take cordyceps and rishi mushrooms i have a good portfolio supplements that i take and despite the fact that i've been directly exposed to people in the household with coronavirus i never contracted it okay because i'm like most americans it's not a problem for me and now vaccinated it's definitely not a problem for me yet here's where we're at still have to wear a mask people still treat me i'm contaminated i still have elderly people avoiding me crossing the street so that they they don't walk by me there's still fear a pathological hysteria about this mythological disease that will kill every single person it touches and if it doesn't kill you leave you so destroyed and ravaged that you'll wish you're dead and i'm just so sad we cannot have intellectually honest conversation it's just impossible in this modern environment it's so polarized when i talk about this stuff i have a political group of people who are saying yeah yeah yeah [ __ ] the lockdowns and the minute i mentioned the vaccine they say oh you agree with bill gates and you want to kill all of us and sterilize all of us and so forth okay me and the other let's take a look here 1.21 billion [ __ ] people people come on this so if one-seventh of the goddamn world has it i'm thinking it's probably not as bad as you guys are making it out to be come on let's be honest here no one can actually tell me what's going to kill me i'm healthy fertility's the same sperm count didn't go down labs are exactly the same genetically i'm actually younger than my chronological age came back 28 instead of 33. so what exactly did the pfizer thing do to me oh some unforeseen side effect that's deep into the future which we can't quantify okay so if i get cancer 20 years from now the anti-vaxxer people say see we told you so that cancer was caused by the pfizer i know it that's why i didn't get my shot great you're getting nature's vaccine you're one of the unlucky ones who will contract it at some point it's a respiratory virus we all get it and when you get it just like me you have a pretty good immune response and the odds are you'll be okay and if you get reinfected the odds are it'll be mild even if it was severe in the beginning that's what every single data point we're told says but we can't be intellectually honest about that because the other side is saying even vaccinated you're still a threat even vaccinated nothing changes even vaccinated covet is the worst thing ever religion has to shut down commerce has to shut down [ __ ] everybody in the developing world we don't care if two million three million four million people starve to death because i guess they're brown people and the white people are the ones that matter even though the people saying this are from the social justice crowd and the racial justice crowd why am i the guy who cares about them i'm supposed to be the evil libertarian who doesn't care about these things yet i recognize full well that the people who will die from this are the most vulnerable and the least able to deal with this economically but then the people who claim to care about those people and take care of those people they just don't give a [ __ ] at all it doesn't matter to them they are incapable of acknowledging that there's more to this debate than annoyance of having to wear a goddamn mask or annoyance over un filled tables at a restaurant or something like that they don't seem to understand we live in a global economy they don't seem to understand that the things that we do in america do impact africa and the rest of the world and the policies we have here impact everybody else they also don't seem to understand that there's an enormous psychological damage to people enormous trauma to people you can't do this to children you're denying them a good education you're denying them socialization during the formative moments of their lives and you're putting humongous economic stress and physical stress on families which has already caused a humongous increase in suicide domestic violence and overall trauma to family units and then everybody just gets apathetic conspiratorial angry polarized and the society starts breaking apart faith and institution starts decaying when we're still saying that in a national forest you have to wear a mask outdoors millions of acres around you trees around you everywhere mountain vistas and you got to wear a goddamn mask people start saying this government is incapable of being honest to me and if they're not honest on this they must not be honest on anything else so maybe they're wrong about nutrition maybe they're wrong when they said that this event happened or that event happened you're pushing people into polarized conspiratorial thinking by doing these types of things and not having a real and honest conversation with people and why am i being demonized on all these things did you guys read apollo's arrow one of the few books written about this during the pandemic from a very qualified person did you take the mit course on coven 12 great lectures from top people have you been looking at the data in the readouts day by day have you been reading the fda reports for example the the vaccine reports for emergency use authorization be [ __ ] intellectually honest for once in your goddamn troll lives did you actually put in the work do you actually know these things let's be real about it and if you are a medical professional be intellectually honest about proportionality if you are looking at these numbers right here as a physician public health official would you honestly be concerned that this is your number one priority to an extent that we have to traumatize our entire health care system in society honestly were you this concerned about tuberculosis or hiv or other conditions and say that we need to shut down society for this and change our behavior social distance have direct government in event intervention into our economy are you prepared to accept the price of wood the inflation the trillions of dollars that have been printed as a consequence of this is this really the hill to die on when you look at numbers like this guys we're out of this these all we have to do is solve the incentive problem that's it that's all we have to do give people their lives back if they get vaccinated then end all restrictions for them yes some people will catch covet for it but you're going to be so rapidly trading the unvaccinated for the vaccinated we actually have a shot at getting this number and if we get to this number we will have very strong hurt immunity against most variants that have been discovered some will still flare up good genomic surveillance will give us a head start on that and we roll this by fall winter into the flu vaccines and then year by year the immunity builds the collection of variants that are problematic reduce and it's over for america then we can focus on the rest of the world and we can make sure that the rest of the world gets this resolved so that they don't have the disasters that we're starting to see in the developing world and by having a strong economy means we're buying stuff and if we're buying stuff it means that the economic calamity and the mass starvation that's happening in the developing world the civil unrest that's helping in the developing world will stop happening what's your alternative what are your goal posts if this is unreasonable you tell me then what is reasonable what happens when we stall out like israel did at 57 you tell me what do we do that do we just start firing people who don't get vaccinated do we just start creating a pariah system and we force people to to wear a red vest who are unvaccinated and have a two-tiered system in society do we tell the unvaccinated people to pay a higher tax rate what do we do and what happens when you've already gotten it is that person a different citizen you're telling people who have been infected and recovered to get vaccinated and treating them as if nothing happened and that's just wrong it's a vaccine just as good as the one you've gotten it's nature's vaccine it's riskier it has a higher chance of death a higher chance of side effects a higher chance of permanent damage than anything we make in a lab but it's basically the same principle the whole point of the vaccine is to replicate what you get when you get the natural infection so should those people be priya's should those people have to go through hell and be discriminated what are you prepared to push for and if this is really the hill to die on what about other behavior and antisocial behavior what other things should we just start pushing into that are problematic what if somebody's a diagnosed sociopath or psychopath or has some mental illness that statistically means their higher chance of committing a violent crime because that person's at a higher risk to society would you be in favor of force institutionalization why not you've already crossed the threshold of saying because you're a risk to society from a medical viewpoint because of not being vaccinated or apparently having a natural infection recovering we're going to force you to do something or imprison you so why not because everybody's a coward they don't want to make hard decisions they don't want to actually say things they'll say things without saying things because they're afraid and they're afraid because they've been manipulated and controlled by the media and by other entities with fear porn fear porn fear porn fear porn fear porn fear porn fear porn fear porn guys when pfizer told me it was 94 and i see this right here i feel pretty good about that that's better much much better in practice that's even better than a miracle that we didn't expect to get flu vaccines are like 50 and we got this incredible and what is the media headline breakthrough cases look at the people who have died they've written articles about these 132 deaths my god why would you do that why what what are you doing for the world reporting these types of things why wouldn't the story be 95 million people have gotten it and very few people have had a problem afterwards let's go get this done so we can get our lives back nope the story is bob died because all they want is for you to be afraid and for you to click for you to watch 24 7 news cycle again and again and what when that's disconnected from policy it's entertainment when it's connected to policy it's totalitarianism and it's control and manipulation and propaganda there's a very good reason why every dictator has a ministry of information and a chief propagandist because they understand they have to somehow control the narrative to maintain power and i'm just fed up and tired of it and i am too old and been through too many crises in my life and too many events in my young life to have any trust left in policy makers they lie to you again and again and again they manipulate you again and again and again and it's our job as citizens to step up and say we [ __ ] had enough we really honestly have i'd like to have everybody's lives back i'd like for people to hug each other again i'd like for people to shake hands again i'd like for children to play with each other again i'd like for old people not to live in fear that this is their last day a pre-covet and the minute they again affect it that they're going to instantly die and spend some of the last years of their lives in isolation not being able to touch the people that they love or see the people that they love even after they've been vaccinated and the people that they love have been vaccinated we can't do this to society and if we keep destroying the economies of the world doing this the consequences will be dire globally the economic damage you don't feel as much as you should because the us government hid it from you guys we can't print six trillion dollars and get away with it okay you just can't do it it's gonna be felt somewhere by some group of people it doesn't impact me at all i'm a rich guy it's easy for me to hedge against inflation there's a reason bill gates has 260 000 acres of farmland it's not because he really enjoys growing hay it's because it's a good hedge against the failure of a sovereign currency whatever happens land is land it's finite it'll hold its value in one currency or the other and it produces something of productive value so whatever you're denominating it in people need to eat it's a good place to put your value when you're concerned about monetary policy there's a reason i bought a ranch in wyoming i'm deeply concerned about where u.s monetary policy is going you ever stop and think why the [ __ ] is bitcoin a trillion dollars where the [ __ ] are cryptocurrencies so valuable right now it's not because everybody just woke up and said wow cryptocurrencies are the most amazing thing ever guys the adoption rates aren't there yet it's because people are recognizing this is one of the few things with same monetary policy you can't print a bitcoin you can't go tinker with ada and then suddenly say oh well it'd be good to have an extra 45 billion ada let's go do that they're fixed and when people compare that to a currency where every single time we don't want to make difficult decisions and we want to kick something down the road you can just push push a button and get some fed ass printing and then suddenly you have an extra six trillion dollars and you inject it into the economy it's devastating and it doesn't impact me i can borrow money at 0.

7 interest can you so all this new money i get first access to i can use that money to buy assets that are inflation resistant and when you guys get hit you have to pay an extra 50 percent for stuff an extra 100 percent for stuff and where's that coming from in your paycheck i'm warning you it's not sustainable and this policy is dangerous covet was a real thing it was a horrible thing and it's still a horrible thing for many people and long covert is here to stay it's the gulf war syndrome of my generation it's gonna harm so many people and it's already robbed a lot of people of the joy of life and it's gonna take decades to unwind all of that and every day a lot of people are dying but now those deaths are not happening in the developed world they're now happening in the developing world we're still having deaths in america and germany and in other places especially japan because there's been issues with the vaccine rollout but amongst the groups that are vaccinated the deaths are plummeting and every data point we have is showing that so the only policy goal at this moment should not be contact tracing and mask wearing and how the hell do we prevent this it should be just get 70 vaccination because what hurt immunity is fine after that and if we can do it globally speaking it's gone we're not going to we can't took us 40 years to even get smallpox and polio under rain so the best we can do is year by year have boosters and we just learn to live with it and deal with it and it becomes a background thing and for risky vulnerable populations if a hot zone occurs you do targeted lockdowns for them so you lock the nursing homes down you lock the hospitals down you start grouping vulnerable people together and limiting their contact with the outside world until the hot zone disappears it's perfectly reasonable to ask people in a nursing home to wear a mask and you should go up a level ask them to wear the kind of ppe that the people who are testing you wear when they test you because there's an incredibly low risk of transmission then even if you're infected okay so that's reasonable what's not reasonable is to do what we're doing to society traumatizing our children harming our families destroying our religions ruining our economy and ignoring the economic damage this is doing to the weakest people in the world and then putting us in a position where you live in constant fear of each other and in society and i'm sorry the media is culpable in this and if you are on the other side of this you really need to take a step back and think about your goddamn priorities in life and get off your self-righteous pretend science viewpoint there's no science behind your viewpoint at all because it's not settled the best the best people in the world can do is write a damn report like this that basically says okay it probably reduces but we don't know more study is required and this is from the european center for disease prevention and control the whole goddamn european union coming together nobody knows so the best we can do is just look at what we got and react to it and the best we can do is say do you want to have a holy vaccinated population or an unvaccinated population and what looking here i feel pretty damn good about a vaccinated population every data point in the entire world agrees with that viewpoint so then the only policy question we should be asking is how do we get there and what incentives do you give people and if you're not capable of thinking like that then you shouldn't be making policy and you shouldn't be commenting on policy you're just noise in the entire background and if you'd like to learn more about how to think properly there's great class to take it's from scott page he's had it for 12 years it's called model thinking and it covers economics and it covers all kinds of cool things it talks you how to think about segregation and pure effects and aggregation and decision models and modeling people in linear models and tipping points and diversity and markov processes and lippinoff functions and path dependencies and random blocks and you can have tons of fun learning about all the tools of model building and decision making and it's a great entry point there's a wonderful companion book with it and there's great data science courses as well that are on coursera that can help you actually break down and analyze these things and understand what the hell do they mean and i've pointed out in prior videos courses that are free all of these things are free they're on mit that actually talk about immunology and coronavirus and other such things and there's a wonderful book called apollo's arrow that goes into absolute detail about all these things if you're really curious about this you really want to put in the time that educate yourself and actually think okay not everybody's out to get you not everything's evil i don't think covert was some manufactured crisis that some cabal of bilderberg people put together to take all of our freedoms away i absolutely believe however that these kinds of people say let no crisis go to waste because they've said it and they saw a crisis and they said let's take advantage of it for policy reasons somehow covet is related to the green new deal somehow covet is related to tax rates somehow covet is related to universal education and health care now these might be admirable goals that you politically agree with but i think it's shameful to try to couple a public health crisis that is universal with a desire for political change there's separate issues you shouldn't couple them and when you do you kill people because the people who disagree with the things that you say will not consent and when they don't consent they inadvertently harm other people we can all agree to that it's a universal truth and it has to stop we have been through this now guys since march of 2020 in the united states and i see no end in sight i really don't and i see no reasonable goal post and when they start talking about these types of goal posts there's no process upon which to get us there outside of just overwhelming public shame and propaganda and unfortunately punitive measures and i firmly believe that's what's coming next we're going to start labeling people and the people who don't do what the government wants them to do are going to become priya's very soon and if we do a vaccine passport system what's going to happen with that at some point they're going to say we should also use it for other things maybe we use the vaccine passport if you haven't paid your taxes you don't get something maybe if you you haven't done x we're going to go ahead and restrict your access to something i don't know we'll link it all together who does that it's called china look up social credit once you have something that restricts it says the haves and the have-nots then people will abuse it unless you pass a law saying they can't so let's pass a law that's in the vaccine passport system because they're coming will only be used for x and it's illegal to use it for anything else wouldn't you agree why is that not an easy thing why is it not a hundred out of zero senators voting on it the entire house voting on it the president signing it tomorrow because he let no crisis go to waste that's where we're at it has to stop and i'd like to believe there's enough people out there who understand what i'm saying and and really dig deep into what i'm saying and they they take a moment and they set their egos aside and they can focus for five i know we're in the tick tock generation i saw statistics today that blew my mind youtube the average youtube user watches 40 minutes of youtube videos per day and the average video length is 11 minutes the average tick tock user watches 59 minutes of tick tock and that constitutes about 314 videos 314 to 4.